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作者：李洪敏，王建州，杨胡方，王颖

题名：Air quality deterministic and probabilistic forecasting system based on hesitant fuzzy sets and nonlinear robust outlier correction

期刊：Knowledge-Based Systems（SCI、JCR1区TOP期刊、影响因子8.8）

摘要：Performing scientific and accurate forecasting and realizing the quantitative description of uncertainties in air quality remain challenging prospects. Because of the strong volatility and uncertainty of air pollutant concentrations, this problem increases in difficulty when multiple requirements are considered. In this study, a novel air quality deterministic and probabilistic forecasting system based on hesitant fuzzy sets and nonlinear robust outlier correction was proposed to realize air quality early warning. The proposed system solves the non-stochastic non-deterministic problem in air quality forecasting considering a novel hesitant fuzzy time series forecasting model wherein the intervals are partitioned by different approaches with optimal weights determined by the multi-objective JAYA algorithm. The forecasting performance is further enhanced with the introduction of a new nonlinear error correction model based on an outlier robust extreme learning machine and multi-objective JAYA algorithm, and the quality of the solution obtained is verified by sensitivity analysis. However, point forecast information alone is not sufficient to facilitate the rational integration of pollution control measures. Therefore, this study conducts probabilistic forecasting and constructs proper prediction intervals based on the optimal distribution of the forecasting residuals. By comparing the results with typical counterparts and comparison models considering multiple metrics, the experimental results confirmed the improvement scheme proposed in this study on the traditional fuzzy time series forecasting method while the effectiveness of applying the proposed system to air quality early warning was confirmed as well.

作者简介：

李洪敏，东北林业业大学新葡萄8883官网AMG副教授，应用经济学科经济统计专业负责人，东北财经大学统计学博士。研究方向为统计预测与决策，机器学习及其应用，主要从事空气质量评估，空气污染预警，能源经济研究。在《Applied Mathematical Modelling》、《Knowledge-Based Systems》、《Expert Systems with Applications》、《Applied Soft Computing》等国际顶流期刊发表SCI/SSCI检索论文20余篇，其中4篇文章入选“ESI检索高被引论文”。截止至2023年12月，个人谷歌学术引用次数800余次，H指数14。出版专著1部（科学出版社），软件著作权4项。主持纵向项目国家自然科学基金项目、黑龙江省自然科学基金优秀青年项目、黑龙江省哲学社会科学规划项目等多项。重要参与国家社会科学基金重大项目、国家自然科学基金项目、教育部人文社会科学项目、辽宁省教育厅高层次创新团队海外培训项目等10余项。